Will Nifty Rebound From Here? All Eyes On RBI MPC Outcome
The Indian stock market has been experiencing a downturn, with the Nifty 50 index delivering a déjà vu performance, with price action unfolding in an almost identical manner to the previous session. The index opened on a firm note and briefly crossed the 24,700 mark, but the early momentum soon fizzled as selling pressure resurfaced on every intraday rise.
Nifty’s Daily Range Narrows
The Nifty 50 index’s daily range narrowed to about 144 points, below its 10-day average, as trading turned listless during the mid- to later part of the session. This contraction in range, coupled with muted intraday activity, suggests that downside momentum is losing steam, with market participants avoiding aggressive bets ahead of the central bank’s policy decision.
Bank Nifty Index Shows Relative Resilience
The Bank Nifty index showed relative resilience ahead of the RBI’s October MPC meeting, while the broader market presented a mixed picture: the Nifty Midcap 100 registered marginal losses, whereas the Nifty Smallcap 100 managed to end in positive territory.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, the Nifty 50 has formed a bearish-bodied candle with a lower high and a lower low, signalling continued weakness. The index remains under pressure, trading below its 20, 50, and 100-day moving averages, and is currently hovering around the falling trendline formed by connecting the Aug. 21 and Sept. 4 swing highs.
Going forward, immediate support lies in the 24,580–24,600 zone; failure to hold above this could drag the index towards the 24,340–24,440 band. On the upside, any positive surprise from the RBI meeting or commentary by the governor could spark a short-term relief rally, though the 24,750–24,850 zone is expected to act as a stiff resistance.
Conclusion
In summary, the undertone continues to favour the bears, but the shrinking daily range hints at an exhaustion of selling pressure. The spotlight now shifts squarely to the RBI’s MPC outcome, which will be the key catalyst in determining whether the market can stage a near-term rebound or remain weighed down by bearish sentiment.
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