Reliance Industries Q3 Preview: Weak Oil & Gas, Strong O2C To Keep Earnings Stable
Reliance Industries Ltd is expected to report a largely stable set of consolidated numbers for Q3FY26 on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with modest growth across revenue, operating profit and net earnings. Analysts do not expect any major surprises in the quarter, with performance driven by steady execution in core segments and selective tailwinds in oil-to-chemicals and retail.
The oil-to-telecom conglomerate’s October-December quarter revenue is expected to rise 1% on a sequential basis. Ebitda is expected to increase 4.6% to Rs 47,997 crore compared with Rs 45,885 crore in the previous quarter, supported by better operating performance in key businesses. Operating margin is projected to improve to 18.7% from 18%. While net profit is projected to grow 6% sequentially to Rs 19,271 crore from Rs 18,165 crore.
Segment-Wise Performance
Segment-wise, the retail business is expected to deliver steady growth. Retail revenue is estimated to rise 2.8% quarter on quarter to Rs 93,060 crore from Rs 90,544 crore, while retail Ebitda is seen increasing 9.3% to Rs 7,448 crore from Rs 6,817 crore.
However, on a year-on-year basis, Ebitda growth in retail is expected to remain weak due to a high base. This is also influenced by losses in JioMart Quick Commerce and the demerger of Reliance Consumer Products.
The festive season impact has been split between second quarter and third quarter this year, compared with being concentrated in third quarter last financial year, further affecting comparability.
In addition, the demerger of Reliance Consumer Products and reduced retail selling prices of products following the GST rate cut are each expected to have a 2% impact on retail topline.
Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) Segment
The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment is expected to be one of the brighter spots in the quarter. O2C Ebitda is projected to rise 6.5% quarter on quarter to Rs 15,980 crore from Rs 15,008 crore, marking the highest sequential jump in the last four quarters.
Growth is likely to be driven by better refining margins and the benefit of a weaker rupee, partly offset by continued weakness in the petrochemicals business.
Oil and Gas Exploration Segment
In contrast, the oil and gas exploration segment is expected to see a sharp decline. Ebitda from this business is projected to fall 12% quarter on quarter to Rs 4,388 crore from Rs 5,002 crore, representing the biggest drop in the last 15 quarters. The decline is attributed to lower realisations and volumes during the quarter.
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Investor Focus
Besides the headline numbers, the street will closely monitor Reliance’s crude sourcing strategy, margin outlook in refining and petrochemicals, and signs of a pickup in retail growth during the festive season. Investors will also look for updates on the new energy business, commentary on potential tariff hikes ahead of the Jio IPO, progress in Jio Fiber, and guidance on capital expenditure plans and debt levels.
For Indian investors looking to stay updated on the Indian Stock Market, it’s essential to keep an eye on the performance of major companies like Reliance Industries. You can find more information on Q1 Results and other market updates on our website.