Nifty 50 to Hit 25,500 by March 2026: Axis Securities
Domestic brokerage house Axis Securities believes the Indian stock market benchmark Nifty 50 has the potential to reach 25,500 by March 2026, highlighting India’s favorable long-term growth story supported by rising capex, consumption, and credit growth from the Union Budget and GST 2.0 reforms.
Long-term Growth Story
Axis Securities forecasts a 13% CAGR in Nifty earnings over FY23-27, with financials being the largest contributor. However, they cautioned that trade policy uncertainty, rupee depreciation, and delayed earnings revival remain near-term risks.
Investment Strategy
The current level of India’s VIX is below its long-term average, indicating that the market is currently in a neutral zone (neither panic nor exuberance). While the medium to long-term outlook for the overall market remains positive, we may see volatility in the short run. Hence, Axis Securities recommends investors maintain good liquidity (10-15%) to use any dips in a phased manner and build a position in high-quality companies (where the earnings visibility is quite high) with an investment horizon of 12-18 months.
Nifty’s Target: Base, Bull, and Bear Case Scenarios
The base case, or the most likely or expected target of Nifty 50, is 25,500. In the bull case, Axis Securities values Nifty at 21 times, translating into a March 2026 target of 26,800. In the bear case, Axis values Nifty at 17 times, arriving at a March 2026 target of 21,600.
Rebound Likely in October?
Indian equity markets saw mixed trends in September 2025, following a four-month rally that cooled off in July and August. Axis Securities noted that while structural reforms such as GST rationalisation initially boosted sentiment, the market struggled to maintain momentum.
Market Strategy for October
Axis Securities recommends focusing on ‘growth at a reasonable price’ by investing in quality stocks, market leaders, monopolies, and domestically-focused sectors. Their sector preferences include BFSI, telecom, consumption, hospitals, interest-rate proxies, and select capex-oriented plays, while maintaining a cautious stance on export-oriented sectors due to tariff risks and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Top Stock Picks for October
Axis Securities updated its top picks for October 2025, adding Mahanagar Gas and booking profits in Varun Beverages. Other recommended stocks include HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, Shriram Finance, Avenue Supermarts, State Bank of India, Lupin, Hero Motocorp, Max Healthcare, Kirloskar Brothers, Kalpataru Projects, APL Apollo Tubes, Bharti Airtel, Prestige Estates, and Sansera Engineering.
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