Dalal Street Week Ahead: 10 Key Factors to Watch
The Indian stock markets are expected to start the week on a strong note following the US Supreme Court ruling against Trump tariffs, but the upside may be capped as the disappointed Trump has decided to increase global tariffs and signalled other ways to impose tariffs.
Overall, the week is expected to be rangebound until the Nifty 50 decisively surpasses and sustains above the psychological 26,000 zone, with focus on further updates related to the India-US trade deal (especially after the SC verdict), US-Iran developments, oil prices, weekly US jobs data, FIIs mood, Q3FY26 GDP numbers, experts said, adding that the monthly F&O expiry-led volatility can’t be ruled out.
Supreme Verdict and Trump Mood
The Supreme Court announced its much-awaited decision on aggressive Trump tariffs with a 6-3 majority on February 20, striking down tariffs that have been used by the US President Donald Trump as a negotiation tactic for making favourable trade deals for the United States. The decision signalled a positive mood and is clearly a major setback for Trump’s agenda, but the Trump is Trump as after the court verdict, which deeply disappointed him, he has increased the global tariff rate to 15 percent from 10 percent earlier for 150 days.
Experts expect a one-day market rally but feel the uncertainty is likely to persist as Trump signals for using other ways to impose import taxes. Trump tariffs have been a major concern for the global economy, and the latest development is expected to have a significant impact on the Indian stock markets.
Global Economic Data
On the economic releases front, the US weekly jobless claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, factory orders along with speeches from several FOMC officials will be closely watched as investors seek clearer guidance on the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut.
Further, the focus will also be on Japan’s retail sales, housing starts, and construction orders for Japan. The global economic data will have a significant impact on the Indian stock markets, and investors will be closely watching the developments.
US-Iran Tensions, and Oil Prices
Oil prices jumped to the highest level since June 2025, with the Brent crude oil futures rising 5.92 percent to US$71.76 a barrel on reports that Trump issued Iran a 10–15-day deadline to reach a nuclear agreement. Growing US military deployments have heightened fears of disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint handling roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade.
This is one of the major negative factors for the oil-importing countries like India, which imports 80-90 percent of its oil. The oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the coming weeks, and investors will be closely watching the developments.
Q3 GDP Growth
Back home, the market participants will focus on the GDP numbers for the quarter ended December 2025 and second estimates for the full year (FY26) economic growth, releasing on February 27, and its implications on earnings momentum and broader market positioning.
As per the preliminary estimates, the economy is expected to grow 7.4 percent in the current financial year (FY26) against 6.5 percent growth in the previous year. The GDP growth in Q2FY26 (July-September period) was 8.2 percent, while the rating agency ICRA expects Q3FY26 GDP growth to moderate to 7.2 percent, citing slower expansion in services and agriculture despite improved industrial performance.
FII Flow
The mood at the FIIs desk will also be watched in the coming weeks, as they have been intermittently buying in the current month but markets need sustainable inflow. FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) were net sellers in the week passing by, net offloading Rs 638 crore worth of shares and as a result, their net outflow for the current month was little more than Rs 2,000 crore, as per provisional data.
Overall, experts still hope for strong FII flow in the current year after a major outflow in the past calendar year, citing the improving earnings and healthy economic growth. The FII flow will have a significant impact on the Indian stock markets, and investors will be closely watching the developments.
IPO Action
The primary market will have a busy schedule next week as more than Rs 4,400 crore worth of nine IPOs are opening for subscription, including four amounting to Rs 4,173-crore from the mainboard segment.
Renewable energy provider Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions, and cotton yarns producer Shree Ram Twistex will open their IPOs (initial public offering) worth Rs 3,100 crore, and Rs 110 crore, respectively, on February 23.
Technical View
Technically, there are mixed signals from technical and momentum indicators. The Nifty 50 bounced back and finished last week slightly above the short-term moving averages (10- and 20-week EMAs), as well as above the previous week’s low, which is positive.
However, it could not hold above the midline of the Bollinger Bands (20-week SMA, which is slightly above 25,700) on a closing basis. If the index extends its uptrend next week and sustains above 25,700, it may enter bullish momentum. A convincing break above the crucial resistance level of 26,000 can open the door to a record high.
However, as long as it remains below 26,000, consolidation may be seen, with 25,400 acting as a support level, experts said. The Nifty technical analysis will have a significant impact on the Indian stock markets, and investors will be closely watching the developments.
F&O Cues
The weekly options data indicated that the Nifty 50 is expected to be in the 25,000-26,000 range in the short term, as the decisive close on either side of the range can give firm direction.
The 26,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, followed by the 25,800 and 25,700 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 25,650, 26,050, and 26,150 strikes. On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was placed at the 25,000 strike, followed by the 25,500, and 25,400 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 25,500, 25,600, and 25,550 strikes.
India VIX
Meanwhile, the India VIX (volatility index), which measures expected market volatility, soared 8 percent for the week to 14.36, in addition to an 11.3 percent rally in the previous week. Further, it climbed above all key moving averages, which all signalled concerns for bulls and rising uncertainty.
The comfort for bulls will be possible only if the VIX drops decisively below the 12 level. The India VIX will have a significant impact on the Indian stock markets, and investors will be closely watching the developments.
Corporate Action
Here are key corporate actions taking place in the coming week:
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