Nifty 50 Gains Momentum with Third-Day VIX Drop; 23,800 Crucial for Rally Toward Psychological Levels

The Nifty 50 extended its recovery amid a falling VIX for the third consecutive session, rising 0.8 percent on March 18 despite elevated oil prices due to tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Momentum indicators are showing gradual improvement, though they are not yet fully aligned with the rally.

Nifty Outlook for March 19

Nifty may move toward 24,000–24,100 zone, provided it sustains 23,800 in following session. Immediate support is seen at 23,600–23,500. Nifty 50 index has been showing a positive trend, and the India VIX has corrected nearly 19% over the last three days.

Technical Analysis

The Nifty 50 opened higher above 23,600 and stayed in positive territory throughout the session. The index hit an intraday high of 23,862 in the latter part of the session before closing at 23,778, up 197 points (0.83 percent), taking total gains over the last three sessions to more than 3.5 percent. It formed a bullish candle with a minor upper shadow on the daily timeframe, indicating a healthy trend despite some pressure at higher levels.

Momentum indicators still need to align with the rally. The RSI, although it has recovered from the recent low of 24 to 37.04, is yet to reclaim the 40 mark. The DI- remains comfortably above DI+, highlighting continued bearish dominance, while the MACD line is still below both the zero line and the signal line, though it has started to incline upward after a month. For the pullback to sustain, the Nifty needs to continue moving higher gradually.

Bank Nifty

The banking index also played a key role in Wednesday’s rally, rising 0.82 percent to 55,326. It formed a bullish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily charts, indicating a positive bias despite some volatility. Bank Nifty extended its recovery for the third straight day, closing above the previous high and sustaining above the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement (of the rally from the March 2025 low to the February 2026 high) for another session. However, volumes have been declining during this period.

Conclusion

With the improving trend, the Nifty 50 may move toward the psychological 24,000–24,100 zone in the next few sessions, provided it closes above and sustains 23,800 in the following session. Immediate support is placed at 23,600–23,500, according to experts. The Indian stock market is expected to be volatile in the coming sessions, and investors should keep a close eye on the Nifty 50 levels and Bank Nifty levels for further guidance.